Se acaban de publicar predicciones a 5 años vista de la división de Media&Entertainment de la empresa PricewaterhouseCoopers, que suele hacer análisis bastante buenos del sector y lo más importante, fundamentados, porque las bolas de cristal no son infalibles excepto para Rappel.
Este estudio es relativo a la situación del mercado M&E en EE.UU. desde este pasado año 2010 y hasta el 2015. En uno de los puntos destaca al 3D y al Blu-Ray como «key boosters» del mercado global cinematográfico. Además de no hablar de burbuja alguna, esto es un simple resumen de un análisis más profesional que lo que se pudo leer en el artículo de El País de ayer.
Quiero destacar que en este estudio se prevé que, en 2014, las ventas de contenidos en mercados online superarán a las de los contenidos en soportes físicos.
Resumen del PwC’s Global Entertainment & Media Outlook:
«Having posted a 3.1 percent year-over-year gain in 2010 on the strength of TV and online advertising, the overall market for media and entertainment in the U.S. has begun to rebound, according to PricewaterhouseCoopers.
The accounting firm’s new five-year outlook calls for the country’s M&E sector to grow at a compound annual growth rate of 4.6 perent, from $443 billion in 2010 to $555 billion in 2015 (via Television Broadcast). Most all M&E segments in the U.S. will post modest growth during the period, save recorded music and newspaper publishing (both declining at a CAGR of 0.4 percent through 2015).
Digital media and entertainment will account for 28.5 percent of the overall U.S. market in 2015, up from 20.6 percent in 2010. On a global basis, digital growth is more steep: it is expected to account for 58.7 percent of all global M&E spending increases during the next five years.
The firm identifies 3D and Blu-ray as key boosters of the global filmed entertainment market, along with the proliferation of tablets, expanding broadband penetration, and faster broadband speeds. Worldwide filmed entertainment spending is expected to grow at a compound annual rate of 5.9 percent to $115 billion in 2015, from $86 billion in 2010.
Spending increases in online games will drive global video games growth, with the overall market projected to expand to $82 billion in 2015 — an 8.2 percent compound annual increase from $56 billion in 2010.
The digital market continues to grow on a global basis, and will overtake physical spending by 2014, according to PwC. Nevertheless, overall music spending is expected to fall at a 1.1 percent compound annual growth rate over the next five years, decreasing from $23 billion in 2010 to $22 billion in 2015.»